Friday, July 24, 2015

SUB-REGIONAL INITIATIVE, OPPORTUNITY OR CHALLENGES?

Regionalism in Asia-Pacific so far has been more of a network-based integration rather institution-based, which is the characteristic of the European Union. Since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, East Asian Countries have been looking for alternative for the less-relevant and weak APEC. This resulted in an increasing number of sub-regional initiatives within the Asia-Pacific region, especially within the East Asian and Southeast Asia states. Under the framework, of ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN countries, China, Korea, Japan, have agreed on establishing a currency-swap arrangement, the Chiang Mai Initiative. On top of that, ASEAN also has FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with each of them. Other economic and financial projects such as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and a recent Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), though there are still much work to be done in those projects, has added the complexity to the regionalism process. The “Noodle Bowl” are now added with more of the noodle. Some scholars argues that those sub-regional initiatives are very instrumental in community building of the Asia-Pacific, while some others views them as a challenge.

One of the scholars who perceives these sub-regional initiatives as a barrier to the regional architecture is Richard Weixing Hu. He sees those regional building projects as overlapping and sometime even competing each other. Evidently, APEC and ASEAN+3’s overlapping objective has caused former to weaken when the East Asian and Southeast Asian member states of APEC decided to shift their attention toward the latter. To Hu, it’s a zero sum game between any institutions and regional building projects that have overlapping objectives, even a few. The overlapping regional building projects could lead major powers to practice “forum shopping”, because they are able to justify their actions, which is against one institution’s value and norm, in another institution. Added by the culture of network-based integration embedded in Asian countries, it would be really hard, if not impossible, to find the right configuration and putting all those puzzles in their right place, which is very instrumental in community building.
Hu continues saying that multiple regional building projects would erode cohesion of region. He reasons that those multiple projects are the illustration of “soft power” competition between the superpowers and the medium powers. For example, in 1990 Malaysia’s former Prime Minister Mohamad Mahathir proposed East Asian Economic Caucus (EAEC), which was vetoed by the US, because the EAEC included only Southeast Asian and East Asian member states. This means that the US would be left out of the table and have no role and very limited influence in the region. Even though the dynamic of regional building has been seen throughout the region in recent, Hu still believe that very little progress has been made in ensuring any promising coherent regional architecture. They yet still do not have any widely-agreed framework to establish regional architecture for East Asia and Asia-Pacific.
It is widely noticed that all prominent regional building projects are all proposed by the major powers. Evidently, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asian, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership were proposed by the US, Japan and ASEAN respectively. Though Japan and US are ally, through Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, each of them pursue a leadership role in the region. ASEAN is not very different, as mentioned in its charter, it states clearly that it determine to be the regional driving force of regional initiatives. These conflicting of interest, if manage carefully, could produce a widely-agreed upon framework for regional building. If not, it could lead to the division and the road to Asia-Pacific community will be prolonged even longer. 
Despite the pessimistic views on the network of sub-regional initiative, it is believed that states will be able to adopt the situation and reach a consensus through a series of mediation, consultation and compromise, and turn the challenges into opportunities. A series of FTAs between ASEAN and its dialogue partners create interdependence and will eventually lead to a higher-level of integrations. The Asian Noodle bowl regionalism is the fundamental element to the extensive pan Asia-Pacific’s regional architecture.

Various regional building projects could also provide space for major powers and medium powers to discuss the regional building blueprint. Such multi-layered forums increase opportunity for confidence building, consultation and consensus, which is very instrumental in regionalism process. US and China are very like to have conflicting ideas regarding how the regional architecture should be; therefore, these two have to come down compromising and concession to each other if they want build an inclusive and strong Asia-Pacific community. In order to achieve this goal Baogang He (2012) suggests the regionalism be a hybrid one. Taking advantage of the hybrid nature of ASEAN, a hybrid regionalism can be achieved. By doing it this way, it would involve the superpowers in the process and each of them could play certain leadership role. The intertwined network of regional building projects play a crucial in this process. They provides countless of forum, discussion opportunities and creates sense of belonging and identity. Through that, it allowed the hybridization to take place between the East and the Western side of Pacific. .  He (2012) continues saying that the regional actors, including the US, China, and Asia all want different style and framework for regional building, but neither of them will get what they want and they still have to accept it anyway. They will have to share responsibility in managing regional affairs. It can be vividly seen that the regionalism in Asia-Pacific started to hybridize. Started with ASEAN, then APEC, ASEAN+3, East Asia Summit, we have witnessed more and more collaboration and cooperation between both sides of the Pacific. 

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